Let's be honest, when most people think of Canada, climate change isn't the first thing that comes to mind. Maybe it's the stunning landscapes, friendly people, or the promise of a stable, welcoming society. But a groundbreaking new study reveals a fascinating trend: Canada is becoming a "climate haven," and that's having a major impact on its real estate market.

This isn't just anecdotal. It's backed by hard data. Dr. Erkan Yönder of Concordia University's John Molson School of Business, in partnership with Equiton, has dug deep into decades of climate data, economic figures, and migration patterns. The result is a compelling report called "The North Effect: Climate Resilience of the Canadian Real Estate Market," and it's turning heads in the real estate world.

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The "North Effect"

The "North Effect" is more than just escaping scorching summers. It's about a unique combination of factors that make Canada surprisingly resilient in a world facing increasing climate uncertainty:

• Milder, Not Scorching: While the planet warms, Canada's northern location means that, in many areas, winters are becoming less brutal, not unbearably hot. Think of it as a "Goldilocks" effect – not too hot, not too cold, but increasingly just right.
• Fewer Climate Extremes (Relatively Speaking): While Canada isn't immune to wildfires and other climate impacts (we'll get to that), it experiences fewer devastating hurricanes, floods, and extreme heatwaves compared to many other parts of the world, especially its southern neighbour.
• A Magnet for Climate Migrants: People are noticing. As other regions become less habitable, Canada's relative stability is a powerful draw. It's not just about comfort; it's about safety, security, and long-term prospects.

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What This Means for You

This isn't just a feel-good story. It's about real-world impacts on the real estate market. Here's what the data reveals and why it matters whether you're buying a family home or diversifying your investment portfolio:

• Climate Migration is Measurable: The study found a direct link between how "climate-exposed" a person's home country is and their likelihood of moving to Canada. A 10-unit increase in a country's climate exposure score (think of it as a measure of climate risk) leads to a roughly 0.5% increase in the share of immigrants from that country across all immigration categories. That might sound small, but it adds up to a significant and sustained boost in housing demand.
• Canada vs. the U.S.: A Tale of Two Climates: While both countries are warming, the U.S. is feeling the heat more intensely. The study found that the U.S. typically experiences five to ten more "abnormal hot degree days" (days over 30°C) per year than Canada. And while wildfires are a concern in both countries, the number of U.S. zip codes affected by wildfires has increased more than five times since 2019, compared to a tripling of affected Canadian three-digit postal codes.
• Temperature's Surprising Twist: Interestingly, a one-degree Celsius increase in average temperature actually increases immigration to Canada – that's the "North Effect" in action! Warmer, but not extreme, temperatures are making Canada more attractive. However, a one-degree increase in abnormal temperature (those extreme heat days) reduces immigration, showing that people are seeking a balance.
• Economic Factors Still Matter: The study also confirms that economic factors play a role. People are more likely to move to Canada from countries with lower GDP per capita, seeking better economic opportunities.
• Wildfire Impact: A 10% increase in the area affected by wildfires lowers the share of immigrants by 2% relative to 2011 levels.

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More Than Just Numbers

This isn't just about capitalizing on a trend. It's about building a sustainable future. The study highlights the importance of:

• Green Building: Investing in homes and buildings with green certifications and energy-efficient features isn't just good for the planet. It's a smart financial move. These properties are likely to be more resilient and hold their value better.
• Climate-Ready Communities: Cities and towns that invest in infrastructure to withstand climate impacts (think better drainage, wildfire protection) are going to be more attractive places to live and invest.

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The Bottom Line

The North Effect study offers a fresh, data-driven perspective on why Canadian real estate is more than just a safe bet – it’s potentially a climate-resilient bet. As climate migration patterns shift, cities with favorable conditions, like Kelowna – recognized by Spring Financial as one of the best-weather cities in Canada – could see even more growth. It’s a reminder that in a changing world, understanding the interplay of climate, migration, and economics is crucial for making informed decisions.

Want to dive deeper? The full report is available at Equiton.com. And if you're ready to explore your options in the housing market, contact a Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty agent today. We’re here to help you navigate this exciting and evolving landscape, finding not just a house, but a home – and potentially, a haven – in a changing world.