Let’s Talk Real Estate: Canada’s Housing Market in December 2024

Alright, let’s cut to the chase—Canada’s housing market in December 2024 has been anything but ordinary. After the wild ride of the last few years, things have cooled off, but not quite the serene glide we all hoped for. Some markets are stabilizing, others are still figuring it out, and overall, the story is one of resilience. Let’s unpack the numbers and the vibes.

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Prices: A Little Dip, Not a Dive

First up, home prices. The Home Price Index (HPI) inched up 0.3% in December compared to November. Year-over-year, we’re down 0.2%, which may not sound like much, but in a market as unpredictable as this, stability is a win. We’re back to where prices were in September 2021—feels like déjà vu, doesn’t it?

Now, condo owners might not be feeling as optimistic. Condo prices have taken a bigger hit in most major cities, making this segment a little more volatile. Compared to the all-time highs of March 2022, overall home prices have dropped by about 17%. Not great, but not the catastrophe some pessimists predicted.

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Sales: Moving, Just Slower

Here’s where things get intriguing. Home sales dropped by 5.8% from November to December. A red flag? Not quite. Compared to the same time last year, sales are up a healthy 19.2%. So yes, the market is moving—it’s just not moving at warp speed anymore.

New listings also fell, down 1.7% from November. But here’s the twist: sales slowed faster than new listings, which bumped up inventory to about 3.9 months. That’s the most supply we’ve seen since September, giving buyers more room to breathe and negotiate.

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Mortgage Rates: The Tug-of-War Continues

Let’s talk mortgage rates—the real game-changer in 2024. Earlier in the year, the Bank of Canada surprised everyone with a rate cut, sparking hope for a drop in mortgage rates. And for a minute, it looked like a dream come true. But the celebration was short-lived.

Rising five-year government bond yields pushed fixed mortgage rates back up. If you’re locked into a variable-rate mortgage, you’re catching a break with the prime rate sitting at 5.45%. But for anyone jumping into the fixed-rate market? It’s still a challenge.

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Market-by-Market Breakdown

Not all cities are riding the same wave. Here’s how things shook out in December:

• Toronto: Single-family homes held steady at $1.28 million, bringing us back to October 2021 levels. That’s still 19.1% below the peak of February 2022. Condos, however, are struggling, dropping to $647,200—a 17.5% decrease from their peak.
• Vancouver: Single-family homes dipped slightly to $1.99 million. Condos also saw a 0.4% drop, sitting at $749,900. Overall, the market here feels like it’s treading water.
• Calgary: This city continues to shine. Single-family homes are up 7.3% year-over-year, sitting at $678,900. Condos, however, aren’t sharing the same success, dropping 1.2% to $338,100.
• Ottawa: Single-family homes rose by 1% to $729,300, while condos fell slightly to $404,400. The market’s holding its own but isn’t on fire.
• Montreal: Single-family homes dipped by 0.5% to $637,400, but condos hit a new high, climbing 0.8% to $413,600. Year-over-year, that’s a 5.9% increase for condos.
• Halifax: Single-family homes are up 1.2% to $533,500, while prices remain 4.2% higher year-over-year. It’s a quieter market but still seeing gains.
• Edmonton: Another rising star. Single-family homes climbed 0.7% to $461,900, marking a 9.7% year-over-year increase. Condos also saw a modest rise, up 0.3% to $194,700.

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The Bigger Picture: What Does This Mean for You?

The Canadian housing market is stabilizing, but it’s far from boring. For buyers, there’s a growing inventory to choose from. For sellers, it’s still possible to find the right buyer, but pricing your property accurately is more critical than ever.

Interest rates will remain a key factor as we head into 2025. If bond yields continue to rise, we might see fixed mortgage rates stay elevated. But if the economy shows signs of slowing, there’s potential for relief.

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The bottom line? This isn’t the market to navigate alone. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just keeping tabs, partnering with a real estate expert like Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty can make all the difference. We know the market, the trends, and how to help you make the most of every opportunity.