In recent years, Canada has experienced a notable surge in emigration, with 2024 marking the highest number of Canadians permanently leaving the country since 1967. This increase in the number of Canadians relocating abroad has significant implications for various sectors, especially real estate. Let's examine the details behind this surge, its regional impact, and the potential consequences for the Canadian housing market.

‍

Understanding Emigration

Emigration refers to the act of a citizen or permanent resident leaving their country to settle in another. Various factors contribute to emigration, including job opportunities, educational prospects, political climate, or retirement plans. While emigration has always been part of population dynamics, a sudden rise in departures can create notable shifts in the economy and housing market.

‍

Recent Emigration Trends

Statistics Canada data reveals a sharp uptick in Canadian emigration in recent years. In 2024:

• 106,134 Canadians emigrated, marking a 3.0% increase from 2023 and a 17.3% rise compared to 2019.
• The fourth quarter alone saw 24,533 Canadians leave the country, a 3.0% increase from the previous year and 30% higher than 2019.

This surge represents the largest annual emigration since 1967, marking a significant demographic shift.

‍

Regional Breakdown of Emigration

The surge in emigration isn't uniform across Canada. According to Statistics Canada's population projections for 2023/2024, the emigration rates (per thousand) for different provinces are as follows:

• Ontario: 2.96
• British Columbia: 3.32
• Alberta: 2.36
• Quebec: 1.41

These figures suggest that British Columbia and Ontario are experiencing higher emigration rates compared to other provinces.

‍

Impact on Real Estate Markets

The increase in emigration has several potential consequences for real estate markets across Canada:

1. Decreased Housing Demand in High-Emigration Areas: As more people leave provinces like Ontario and British Columbia, housing demand may decrease, potentially leading to a cooling of the market.
2. Increased Housing Supply: More properties may hit the market in high-demand areas, potentially relieving some pressure on the housing market.
3. Potential Impact on Rental Markets: A decrease in population could affect the rental market, possibly leading to lower rental rates in some areas.
4. Long-Term Effects on Property Values: While emigration could have an immediate impact on supply and demand, its long-term effects on property values remain uncertain.

‍

Immigration Policy Shift

It's important to note that the Canadian government has recently announced changes to its immigration policy:

• Canada will reduce the number of new permanent residents from 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025, falling further to 380,000 by 2026 and 365,000 by 2027.
• This policy change aims to address concerns over housing shortages and strained social services.

These changes, combined with the emigration trends, could have significant implications for the housing market and overall population growth.

‍

Conclusion

The surge in Canadian emigration to levels not seen since 1967 is creating shifts in the real estate landscape. While emigration alone may not be the sole driver of changes in the market, it is a significant factor that could affect supply, demand, and property prices in key regions. As Canadian emigration continues to rise, particularly from provinces like Ontario and British Columbia, real estate professionals must stay informed and adapt to these changing dynamics.

‍

It's crucial to note that these trends are part of a complex demographic picture, influenced by both emigration and changes in immigration policies. The full impact of these shifts on the real estate market and broader economy will likely unfold over time and may vary significantly across different regions of Canada.