The Canadian housing market in October 2024 presented a complex landscape, with significant regional variations in new home prices. According to the New Housing Price Index (NHPI) released by Statistics Canada, the national index experienced a notable decline of 0.4% month-over-month, marking the largest drop since April 2009. However, amidst this national downturn, 11 out of 27 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) reported unchanged prices, highlighting the diverse dynamics at play across the country.

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Stability Amidst Volatility

The 11 CMAs that maintained stable new home prices in October 2024 include St. John's, Charlottetown, Halifax, Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton, Québec, Ottawa–Gatineau (Quebec part), Guelph, Regina, Saskatoon, and Greater Sudbury. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the broader national trend of declining prices, driven by significant decreases in major markets like Toronto (-1.2%) and Vancouver (-0.6%).

Regional Insights

1. Atlantic Canada: The CMAs of St. John's, Charlottetown, and the combined region of Saint John, Fredericton, and Moncton demonstrated resilience, with no change in their NHPI. This stability can be attributed to a balanced supply-demand dynamic and relatively affordable housing prices compared to larger urban centers. For instance, the index for Saint John, Fredericton, and Moncton remained at 120.0, reflecting a 0.4% year-over-year increase.
2. Québec: The city of Québec also reported unchanged prices, maintaining an index level of 132.7, which represents a 2.0% increase from October 2023. This stability reflects steady demand for new homes, supported by a robust local economy and consistent population growth.
3. Prairie Provinces: Regina and Saskatoon, both located in Saskatchewan, showed no price changes, indicating a balanced market. Regina's index remained at 102.2, while Saskatoon's was stable at 107.8, reflecting a 1.8% year-over-year increase. These regions benefit from a diversified economy, including agriculture and natural resources, which help stabilize prices.
4. Ontario and Quebec Border: The Quebec part of Ottawa–Gatineau maintained its price level at 115.8, contrasting with the Ontario part, which saw a decline to 163.4, down 0.2% from September 2024. This divergence highlights the unique economic and demographic factors influencing each side of the border.
5. Greater Sudbury: In Ontario, Greater Sudbury's unchanged prices reflect a stable local economy, supported by the mining sector and a steady demand for housing. The index remained at 118.6, despite a 1.1% year-over-year decline.

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Factors Contributing to Stability

Several factors contribute to the stability observed in these CMAs:

• Economic Diversification: Many of these regions benefit from diverse economic bases, reducing reliance on any single industry and providing a buffer against economic shocks. For instance, Saskatoon and Regina are benefiting from growing sectors like technology and finance.
• Affordable Housing: Compared to larger urban centers, these CMAs offer more affordable housing options, attracting buyers and supporting stable demand. For example, Greater Sudbury offers homes at a fraction of the cost compared to Ontario’s larger markets.
• Balanced Supply and Demand: A well-managed balance between housing supply and demand helps prevent significant price fluctuations. Regions like Québec and the Atlantic provinces are experiencing population growth, but supply has remained well aligned with demand.
• Government Policies and Regulations: Regional housing markets have also benefited from government policies aimed at stabilizing real estate conditions. Tax credits, land-use regulations, and first-time homebuyer incentives in regions like Québec and the Atlantic provinces have supported consistent demand.
• Consumer Confidence and Sentiment: Local consumer sentiment has remained largely positive in these regions, with many buyers feeling confident about their investment. This is especially true in areas like Saskatoon and Greater Sudbury, where the local economy remains strong.

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What’s Next for the Canadian Housing Market?

Looking forward, the Canadian housing market remains a mixed picture. Major markets such as Toronto and Vancouver have experienced significant price declines, but the stability in 11 CMAs points to a more resilient and balanced housing environment in some regions.

The effect of rising mortgage rates, combined with inflationary pressures, will continue to influence the market. However, markets like Regina and Saskatoon, which are less dependent on high housing prices and more reliant on diversified economic growth, may continue to exhibit stable price trends. Additionally, the ongoing demand for more affordable housing, especially in areas like Greater Sudbury and the Atlantic provinces, will likely keep prices steady in the near term.

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Conclusion

The mixed picture of Canadian housing in October 2024 underscores the importance of regional analysis in understanding the national market. While major markets like Toronto and Vancouver experienced declines, the stability in 11 CMAs highlights the resilience of certain regions amidst broader economic challenges.

As the Canadian housing market continues to evolve, these stable regions may serve as benchmarks for sustainable growth and market balance. Buyers, investors, and policymakers should closely consider these regional dynamics when making real estate decisions. With a closer look at local economic factors, government policies, and demographic shifts, the housing market in these 11 CMAs will likely remain an attractive option for those seeking stability in uncertain times.

This analysis serves as a valuable resource for anyone interested in understanding the regional differences in the Canadian housing market and planning future investments. As we await the next NHPI release in December 2024, all eyes will be on whether these trends of stability persist, or if new patterns emerge in the Canadian housing landscape.