The Canadian commercial real estate landscape is experiencing a period of significant change. A confluence of factors, from market fluctuations to macroeconomic trends, is creating a complex environment for property owners and borrowers.  One of the most pressing concerns is the upcoming wave of maturing commercial real estate debt.

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Rising Interest Rates and Potential Funding Gaps

A substantial amount of commercial real estate debt in Canada, estimated to be over $3 trillion globally by the end of 2025 (JLL), is set to mature in the coming years. This coincides with a projected rise in interest rates, making loan renewals potentially more expensive. The impact could be similar to what we've seen in the residential lending market, potentially creating funding gaps for borrowers.

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Bridging the Gap: Strategies for Borrowers

Several strategies can help borrowers bridge this potential funding gap. These may include:

• Increased Equity Investment:  Injecting additional capital into properties can improve the loan-to-value ratio and make them more attractive to lenders. The current loan-to-value ratio may need to be adjusted  considering stricter lending practices.
• Alternative Financing Sources: Exploring financing options beyond traditional lenders, like private debt funds, may be necessary.
• Strategic Asset Sales: Selling non-core assets can free up capital for debt repayment or new investments.

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A More Selective Lending Environment

Uncertainty in the market is leading lenders to adopt a more cautious approach. This means stricter lending requirements, with varying criteria for different property types. Sectors like multifamily (apartments, condos) and industrial (warehouses, distribution centers) are likely to see more stability, while office and development properties may face tighter restrictions.

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Regulatory Changes and Prudent Lending Practices

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) has issued new guidelines impacting financial institutions' lending practices for commercial real estate. These guidelines emphasize diversification and concentration limits, likely leading to a more conservative lending environment overall.

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Taking a Proactive Approach: Steps for Success

Commercial real estate owners and borrowers must be proactive in managing their debt in this evolving market. Here are three key steps to get ahead:

1. Portfolio Assessment: Conduct thorough property valuations and market assessments to understand your portfolio's current value and risk profile. This will help you plan for upcoming loan renewals and identify opportunities for improvement. Consider engaging real estate professionals or appraisers for accurate valuations.
2. Holistic Business Evaluation:  Evaluate your portfolio's cash flow generation capabilities, considering potential interest rate increases. Stress testing can help you assess how your portfolio might react to adverse conditions. Explore opportunities for redevelopment, repositioning, or divestment to optimize cash flow and liquidity.  Consider the "highest and best use" of individual properties to maximize value.
3. Strategic Action Planning: Informed by your portfolio assessment, develop an action plan. This might involve selling non-core assets, engaging with lenders to explore creative financing solutions (loan modifications, extensions, alternative structures), rightsizing your portfolio (adjusting size or composition of assets) to align with market conditions and investment goals, or evaluating alternative uses or lending and financing solutions.

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By taking a proactive approach, commercial real estate owners and borrowers can navigate the upcoming debt maturity wave and seize opportunities in this dynamic market.

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Source: JLL